Lowongan CLIMATE AND HAZARD MODELLING CONSULTANT - JAKARTA

IMPACT AND RISK assessment in pekalongan city and PEKALONGAN regency

under zurich flood resilience alliance program 

BACKGROUND

The Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance program is one of MercyCorps’ Resilience Flagships; a designated subset of our resilience programs,which seek to deepen our technical excellence in resilience, allow us to test innovative models, and commit to strong M&E systems for measuring resilience impact. The Alliance is a consortium of ten global organizations from the public and private sectors with a shared vision that floods have no impact on people’s ability to thrive. Mercy Corps will collaborate on this project with IIASA, which provides systems analysis and climate risk assessment expertise to the project and the Alliance

The Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance has established three overarching objectives: 

·        Increased funding for flood resilience;

·        Effective public policy in support of flood resilience; 

·        Effective practice in support of flood resilience.

In the five year program, Mercy Corps will spearhead the“influence and advocacy” element of the Alliance to influence government actors to improve national and sub-national policies leading to improved practice and investment for flood resilience. Mercy Corps aims to generate evidence and learnings for advocacy to scale and replicate effective mechanisms and practice for flood resilience. Our country advocacy strategies focus on priorities and needs within each country. 

Through the Zurich program, Mercy Corps Indonesia will examine land use transformation and development in upstream areas, and its effects on downstream communities in Central Java coastal areas that are widely known as prone to both urban and coastal flooding. We will also conduct a climate impact and risk assessment for the coastal area and evidence on its connectivity with urban-flash flooding will enhance its significance. This will demonstrate the need for landscape perspective and transboundary governance in the river and coastal management. The potential of an innovative financing scheme will also be explored and piloted to incentivize the investment in flood resilience.

The findings will be presented in the development of the guidance for Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan and Spatial Planning Guidelines, to influence high-level policymakers to consider resilience in urban planning and to create better governance systems. 

Assessing Climate and Risks in Pekalongan City and Regency

An assessment of climate impacts (observed losses and damages) and risks (projected losses and damages)[1] in Pekalongan City and Regency will be an integral part of Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance Program; in which the assessment will be conducted in a collaborative manner with Mercy Corps Indonesia’s implementing partners. The results from this assessment will be the main ‘ingredients’ for advocacy brief developed under this particular program. 

Attention to DRR and adaptation, generally implemented at national to local levels have been overlapping; as well there has been recent interest in instances, where adaptation may not be enough. Actions and support is debated as part of the international discourse on Loss and Damage[2]. Tounderst and necessary and potential DRR, CCCA and L&D actions, ZFRA will build on the state of the art approach developed by IIASA with GIZ (see Schinkoet al. 2018) to understand impacts and risks as well as standard (incremental)as well as more far-reaching DRR and adaptation options. The framework, which has been applied in 2 regions in India with GIZ and local partners, goes through 6 suggested steps (see box).

Step 1: Assess and match information needs with risk management objectives

Step 2: Define System of Interest

Step 3: Develop Context-specific Methodology

Step 4: Risk Identification to identify low and high-levels of climate-related risk

Step 5: Risk evaluation to identify acceptable, tolerable and intolerable risks

Step 6: Assessment of risk management options


Box 1 A Climate Risk Management (CRM) Framework for India
On behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), the German development assistance agency GIZ with partners developed a CRM framework that can be utilized to assess climate-related risks and identify management measures at various scales. In close cooperation with IIASA, KPMG and IIT Delhi, a six-step process operationalizing the CRM process at scale was developed (Figure 4.7). The CRM process is embedded in a learning framework, which allows for updating decisions over time with mounting evidence and insights. Traditional DRR and CCA policy typically operates via incremental adjustments to existing management approaches. While such incremental learning is important in the short term, climate-related (residual) risks require a particular focus on locally-applicable bottom-up techniques for understanding risks and risk management interventions. Such techniques are, for example, Vulnerability Capacity Assessments (VCAs) and community-led focus groups. In the face of financial, technical and institutional constraints, fundamental and transformative learning is needed. These advanced learning loops aim at achieving the required adjustments of management processes at national and subnational levels in order to be able to deal with increasing risk over time.

Climate risk management(CRM) six-step approach.Source: GIZ et al. (2018 unpublished)
An exemplary application of the comprehensive framework to Tamil Nadu in India (cyclone and flood risk) served to test the methodological approach and glean its usefulness at state and local levels. The application showed that risks are on the rise due to climate and socio-economic drivers and that risks are significantly affecting key objectives of households and the public sector. Furthermore, risk responses by farmers and households are largely of incremental, yet increasingly also of fundamental and importantly transformative nature. Governmental DRR and CCA institutions work well within their remit to provide incremental assistance; yet are usually not charged to deal with fundamental and transformative interventions. The assessment revealed that the risk management policy options space needs more attention and deliberation with those at risk and in charge to further deploy interventions with public support from the state, national to international levels.

Source: Schinko T, Mechler R, Hochrainer-Stigler S (2018) The risk andpolicy space for loss and damage: integrating notions of distributive andcompensatory justice with comprehensive climate risk management. In: Mechler R,Bouwer L, Schinko T, Surminski S, Linnerooth-Bayer J (eds) Loss and damage fromclimate change Concepts, methods and policy options.. Springer, Cham, pp 81–108



OBJECTIVES

The climate risk assessment is developed and advocated with the intention to assist local (city, regency, provincial) and national the government in Indonesia to understand actual and potential impacts and risk,especially non-economic ones, so they can plan and implement policies by considering the areas’ socio-economic and environmental context and analyzing possible disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation measures. The assessment will also be used to understand whether there are limits to adaptation, i.e. where standard adaptation may not be enough and so-called transformational actions may be taken (moving structures from the coastline,resettlement of households, switching livelihoods, such as from agriculture to services etc).

RESEARCH ELEMENT
|
 NO

RESEARCH ELEMENT

RESEARCH COMPONENT
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Geographical Scale:
a. Coastal Area of Pekalongan City and Regency
b. A more detailed focus on the intersection between upstream and downstream area of Sengkarang/ Kupang watershed in Pekalongan Regency (watershed to be decided)
General Approach:

·         Landscape-based perspective

·         Best available science

·         Most feasible approach
|

1

Climate and Hazard Modelling (Current and projection)

●Climate modeling for the selected watershed (Kupang/Sengkarang) and coastal area of Pekalongan City and Regency

● Hazard modeling (utilizing climate scenario; current and projection) based on the preceding climate modelling 

● The geographical scope for hazard modeling will be selected watershed (Kupang/Sengkarang) and a total of 6 coastal sub-districts in Pekalongan City/Regency

● The context scope of hazard modeling: observed and potential climate change impacts (focusing on coastal flooding, flash flood, and drought) and the secondary impacts

● Integration of landscape perspective into modeling and assessment process; analyzing the impact of land use change at the upstream area to climate risk at the study area (i.e. downstream sedimentation rate). This particular inter connectivity assessment will only be done at selected watershed (Sengkarang/Sragi/Kupang watershed; to be decided), but the whole assessment the process will employ landscape-based perspective 

● Provide technical assistance for risk assessment (and projection) conducted by other consultants to ensure cohesive assessment process

● Considerations:  

○ Identify and take account of Pekalongan coastline's characteristics that will affect their level of climate hazard, vulnerability and risk, for instances: sea current, nutrient flow pattern/sedimentation rate and land subsidence rate
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2

Climate Risk Assessment (Current and projection)

● Vulnerability and risk assessment based on the preceding climate and hazard modeling

● Scope of vulnerability assessment: observed and potential climate change impacts (focusing on coastal flooding and flash flood)

● A vulnerability assessment will be done at the community level (specifically for household and community livelihood by using participatory approach if feasible) and ecosystem level (relating to ecosystem services). Baseline analysis will be a part of this vulnerability assessment 

● The targeted community and ecosystem will be determined based on hazard analysis results. 

● Integration of landscape perspective into modeling and assessment process; analyzing the impact of land use change at the upstream area to climate risk at the study area (i.e. downstream sedimentation rate). This particular inter connectivity assessment will only be done at selected watershed (Sengkarang/Kupang watershed; to be decided), but the whole assessment the process will employ landscape-based perspective 
● Identify the current and planned adaptation measures (voluntary and non-voluntary) as one of the basis to estimate potentially avoided and unavoidable loss from flood impact in the study area. including Pekalongan Seawall

● Assess potential entry point for policy advocacy in relation to the risk assessment results; what would be the most feasible target policy and how the assessment could enrich the policy

● Considerations:  

○ Identify and take account of Pekalongan coastline's characteristics that will affect their level of climate hazard, vulnerability and risk, for instances: sea current and nutrient flow pattern
○ Future local and national program to be implemented in the study area and the adjoining area; including but not limited to Pekalongan Seawall the initiative, Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), and Coastal Management Acceleration Program

○ Timeline for related policy (period of implementation, review period etc.) for Central Java Province, Pekalongan City and Pekalongan Regency
|

3

Socio-Economic-Environmental Impact Analysis

(current - by also considering the historical profile change, and projected impact)

● Direct social, economic and environmental impact analysis based on risk assessment results in targeted community and ecosystem; including highlighting the impact to strategic asset/critical public facilities located in the area (i.e. Pekalongan City TPA and TPI, Pekalongan Regency Fisheries Port etc.) 

● Impact  chain analysis to further assess indirectly the impact from the hazards, Impact chain analysis to further assess indirectly the impact from the hazards, including how it affects the socio-economic system and ecosystem services and/or disservices 

● Assesment on residual impact despite preventive and adaptive measures
● Identify the potential adaptation measures that have not been implemented in the area
● Assessment on second-order impacts as a cost or adverse impact from adaptation measures

● Assess potential entry point for policy advocacy in relation to impact analysis results; what would be the most feasible target policy and how the assessment could enrich the policy

● Considerations:  

○ Land tenure issue and livelihood changes due to permanent inundation should be well taken into consideration in assessing the impact chain analysis

○ Pekalongan Seawall initiative, that will be finished and completed along the seashores by Dec 2019
○ Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) impact on stakeholders capacity (ICZM will be focusing on capacity building process for local stakeholders)

○ Hard structure measures implemented under Coastal Management Acceleration Program from Central Java Province Government
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4

Economic and Non-economic Loss Assessment

● Develop a methodology that could assess non-economic loss from climate impact in addition to the conventional economic loss assessment; while also take account both rapid change and slow onset events
● Economic and non-economic loss assessment, including ecosystem services and natural resource valuation,  based on impact chain analysis results 
 ● Assessment on potential avoided loss based on current development trend
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5

Alignment with L&D Preliminary Assessment at National Level

Not included as part of ZFRA research works, but its alignment with ZFRA works needs to be ensured. Regular formal and informal discussion will be held with BAPPENAS consultant that undertake this national level works
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OUTPUT 
- Research guidance incl. 6 step risk management cycle;
- Develop CLIMATE MODEL needed for hazard analysis (Component 1);
- Develop HAZARD MODEL (Component 1), focusing on coastal and flash flood, as the basis for climate risk analysis;
- Support partners in developing the spatial-base climate risk profile;
- Provide technical assistance for comprehensive impact analysis, including risk tolerance and residual impact, as well as option discussion;
- Participate in project and stakeholder meetings (where useful).

WORKING DURATION

8 Months in an intermittent manner started from August 2019 until March 2020; following the indicative timeframe below. This is only an indicative time frame; the Partner could complete the assessment earlier or longer than the indicative time frame, as long as ithas no budget implication and with approval from YMCI.  

Please send your CV together (mention your expectation fee) with position applied on the email subject to procurement@id.mercycorps.org  and dsyam@id.mercycorps.org at the latest 22 August 2019.
Wel ook forward to hearing from those who are interested in taking this opportunity to grow and develop with us.


Thank you,
Yayasan Mercy Corps Indonesia 

[1] Impacts and risks refer to the actual and/or potential manifestation of climate impacts that negatively affect human and natural systems (UNFCCC SBI, 2012: 3). Some analysts have also made the distinction between losses associated with irreversibility, for example,fatalities from heat-related disasters or the permanent destruction of coral reefs, while damages are referred toas impacts that can be alleviated or repaired, such as damages to buildings(Boyd et al. 2017).

[2] Many analysts consider the international Loss and Damage debate to refer to effects that would not have happened in a world without climate change, which have not been reduced, and which cannot be (or have not been) adapted to (Verheyen and Roderick, 2008)

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